Condorcet jury theorem

E941645

result in probability theory result in social choice theory theorem

The Condorcet jury theorem is a result in probability theory and social choice stating that, under certain conditions, the likelihood that a majority vote yields the correct decision increases as the size of the voting group grows.

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All labels observed (3)

Label	Occurrences
Condorcet jury theorem canonical	1
Condorcet’s jury theorem	1
jury theorem	1

How this entity was disambiguated

This entity first appeared as the object of triple T11700299 — resolving that mention is where its identity was fixed. The disambiguator weighed these candidate entities and picked the highlighted one (or “None”, minting a new entity). This is how homonymy is resolved: the same surface form can point to different entities.

NED1 Entity disambiguation (via context triple) gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07

Target entity: Condorcet jury theorem
Context triple: [Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix, relatedConcept, Condorcet jury theorem]

A. Arrow’s impossibility theorem
Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a foundational result in social choice theory showing that no voting system can convert individual preferences into a collective ranking while simultaneously satisfying a set of seemingly reasonable fairness criteria.
B. Condorcet paradox
The Condorcet paradox is a voting theory phenomenon where collective preferences can become cyclic and inconsistent, even when individual voters’ preferences are perfectly rational and transitive.
C. Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem
The Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem is a fundamental result in social choice theory showing that every reasonable voting system with at least three options is susceptible to strategic manipulation by voters.
D. Social Choice and Individual Values
Social Choice and Individual Values is a foundational 1951 book by economist Kenneth Arrow that established modern social choice theory and introduced Arrow’s impossibility theorem.
E. Condorcet criterion
The Condorcet criterion is a voting system standard requiring that if a candidate would win every head-to-head contest against each other candidate, that candidate must be the overall election winner.
F. None of above. chosen
G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.

NED2 Entity disambiguation (via description) gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07

Target entity: Condorcet jury theorem
Target entity description: The Condorcet jury theorem is a result in probability theory and social choice stating that, under certain conditions, the likelihood that a majority vote yields the correct decision increases as the size of the voting group grows.

A. Arrow’s impossibility theorem
Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a foundational result in social choice theory showing that no voting system can convert individual preferences into a collective ranking while simultaneously satisfying a set of seemingly reasonable fairness criteria.
B. Condorcet paradox
The Condorcet paradox is a voting theory phenomenon where collective preferences can become cyclic and inconsistent, even when individual voters’ preferences are perfectly rational and transitive.
C. Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem
The Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem is a fundamental result in social choice theory showing that every reasonable voting system with at least three options is susceptible to strategic manipulation by voters.
D. Social Choice and Individual Values
Social Choice and Individual Values is a foundational 1951 book by economist Kenneth Arrow that established modern social choice theory and introduced Arrow’s impossibility theorem.
E. Condorcet criterion
The Condorcet criterion is a voting system standard requiring that if a candidate would win every head-to-head contest against each other candidate, that candidate must be the overall election winner.
F. None of above. chosen

Statements (49)

Predicate	Object
instanceOf	result in probability theory ⓘ result in social choice theory ⓘ theorem ⓘ
alsoKnownAs	Condorcet’s jury theorem ⓘ linked to: Condorcet jury theorem jury theorem ⓘ linked to: Condorcet jury theorem
appliesTo	committees ⓘ electorates ⓘ juries ⓘ
assumes	common correct state of the world ⓘ each voter has probability p of being correct ⓘ identically distributed voter competence ⓘ independent voters ⓘ simple majority rule ⓘ sincere voting ⓘ voter competence p is greater than one half ⓘ
concerns	binary decisions ⓘ collective decision-making ⓘ group accuracy ⓘ majority voting ⓘ
field	political science ⓘ probability theory ⓘ social choice theory ⓘ voting theory ⓘ
hasCondition	no strategic voting ⓘ no systematic correlation in voter errors ⓘ voters decide between two alternatives ⓘ voters share a common goal of choosing the correct alternative ⓘ
historicalPeriod	18th century ⓘ
implies	large groups can be highly reliable under suitable conditions ⓘ majority rule can aggregate dispersed information ⓘ wisdom of crowds under independence and competence assumptions ⓘ
influences	analysis of jury size ⓘ design of voting institutions ⓘ theory of democratic legitimacy ⓘ
namedAfter	Marquis de Condorcet ⓘ
proposedBy	Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat ⓘ
relatedTo	Bayesian models of voting ⓘ Condorcet method ⓘ Condorcet paradox ⓘ epistemic democracy ⓘ wisdom of crowds ⓘ
states	as number of voters tends to infinity, probability that majority is correct tends to 0 when p<1/2 ⓘ as number of voters tends to infinity, probability that majority is correct tends to 1 when p>1/2 ⓘ if each voter is more likely than not to be correct, majority decision converges to truth as group size grows ⓘ if p=1/2, probability that majority is correct remains 1/2 for all group sizes ⓘ probability that majority decision is correct increases with number of voters ⓘ
uses	Bernoulli trials model ⓘ linked to: Bernoulli trials binomial distribution ⓘ law of large numbers ⓘ

How these facts were elicited

Referenced by (3)

Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.

Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix → relatedConcept → Condorcet jury theorem ⓘ

Condorcet jury theorem → alsoKnownAs → Condorcet’s jury theorem ⓘ

linked to: Condorcet jury theorem

Condorcet jury theorem → alsoKnownAs → jury theorem ⓘ