The Ashtray Effect
E496869
The Ashtray Effect is a book by the philosopher and statistician David J. Hand that explores how cognitive biases and chance events distort our perception of probability and risk in everyday life.
All labels observed (1)
| Label | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| The Ashtray Effect canonical | 2 |
How this entity was disambiguated
This entity first appeared as the object of triple T5135144 — resolving that mention is where its identity was fixed. The disambiguator weighed these candidate entities and picked the highlighted one (or “None”, minting a new entity). This is how homonymy is resolved: the same surface form can point to different entities.
NED1
Entity disambiguation (via context triple)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: The Ashtray Effect Context triple: [Nature, notableWork, The Ashtray Effect]
-
A.
The Smoke
The Smoke is a dramatic work by British playwright Lucy Kirkwood, known for her sharp, socially engaged storytelling.
-
B.
The Smoke
The Smoke is the English name of Surah Ad-Dukhan, a chapter of the Qur’an that warns of a coming smoke as a sign of divine punishment and emphasizes God’s power and mercy.
-
C.
The Smoke
The Smoke is a British television drama series centered on the lives and challenges of London firefighters.
-
D.
Smoking Mirror
Smoking Mirror is an epithet of the Aztec god Tezcatlipoca, a powerful and complex deity associated with night, sorcery, conflict, and destiny.
-
E.
Ashtrays and Heartbreaks
"Ashtrays and Heartbreaks" is a reggae-influenced song by Snoop Lion featuring Miley Cyrus that reflects on loss and remembrance.
- F. None of above. chosen
- G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.
NED2
Entity disambiguation (via description)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: The Ashtray Effect Target entity description: The Ashtray Effect is a book by the philosopher and statistician David J. Hand that explores how cognitive biases and chance events distort our perception of probability and risk in everyday life.
-
A.
The Smoke
The Smoke is a dramatic work by British playwright Lucy Kirkwood, known for her sharp, socially engaged storytelling.
-
B.
The Smoke
The Smoke is the English name of Surah Ad-Dukhan, a chapter of the Qur’an that warns of a coming smoke as a sign of divine punishment and emphasizes God’s power and mercy.
-
C.
The Smoke
The Smoke is a British television drama series centered on the lives and challenges of London firefighters.
-
D.
Smoking Mirror
Smoking Mirror is an epithet of the Aztec god Tezcatlipoca, a powerful and complex deity associated with night, sorcery, conflict, and destiny.
-
E.
Ashtrays and Heartbreaks
"Ashtrays and Heartbreaks" is a reggae-influenced song by Snoop Lion featuring Miley Cyrus that reflects on loss and remembrance.
- F. None of above. chosen
Statements (30)
| Predicate | Object |
|---|---|
| instanceOf |
book
ⓘ
person ⓘ |
| aimsTo |
explain misinterpretations of randomness in everyday life
ⓘ
improve understanding of probability in daily decisions ⓘ |
| author | David J. Hand ⓘ |
| countryOfOrigin | United Kingdom ⓘ |
| describes |
how chance events distort perception of risk
ⓘ
how cognitive biases distort perception of probability ⓘ |
| explores |
gap between objective probabilities and subjective beliefs
ⓘ
heuristics in human reasoning about chance ⓘ role of randomness in everyday outcomes ⓘ systematic errors in risk assessment ⓘ |
| genre |
non-fiction
ⓘ
popular science ⓘ psychology of risk ⓘ |
| hasAuthor | David J. Hand ⓘ |
| hasAuthorOccupation |
philosopher
ⓘ
statistician ⓘ |
| intendedAudience |
general audience
ⓘ
readers interested in psychology of judgment and decision-making ⓘ readers interested in statistics ⓘ |
| language | English ⓘ |
| mainSubject |
chance events
ⓘ
cognitive biases ⓘ decision-making under uncertainty ⓘ probability ⓘ risk perception ⓘ |
| occupation |
author
ⓘ
philosopher of probability ⓘ statistician ⓘ |
How these facts were elicited
The pipeline generated the facts above by prompting gpt-5.1 with this entity's name + description and the instruction below.
Instruction
You are a knowledge base construction expert. Given a subject entity and a description of it, return factual statements that you know for the subject as a JSON list of dictionaries(triples), where keys must be "subject", "predicate" and "object". The number of facts may be very high, between 25 to 50 or more, for very popular subjects. For less popular subjects, the number of facts can be very low, like 5 or 10. # Requirements - If you don't know the subject at all, return an empty list. - If the subject is not a named entity, return an empty list. - Include at least one triple where predicate is "instanceOf". - Do not get too wordy. - Separate several objects into multiple triples with one object.
Input
Subject: The Ashtray Effect Description of subject: The Ashtray Effect is a book by the philosopher and statistician David J. Hand that explores how cognitive biases and chance events distort our perception of probability and risk in everyday life.
Referenced by (2)
Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.